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Velocity panel

A bar chart of the last 8 closed sprints, colour-coded by completion ratio, with rolling average ± standard deviation and a forecast range chip. The footer links to ADR-0036 — the velocity ↔ CPM feedback decision.

Where this lives in the story

Section titled “Where this lives in the story”

Step 7 (Forecast — Monte Carlo across both worlds) of the hybrid PM flow — the velocity history that turns sprint cadence into a defensible probability for Carlos’s exec view.

What you see

Section titled “What you see”
  • Primary stat: {avg} ± {stdev} pts (last N) using .tppm-mono
  • Forecast chip: Forecast {low}–{high} pts right-aligned (range is avg ± 1 stdev, rounded to int)
  • Bar chart: 8 bars (or as many closed sprints as exist), coloured by completion ratio:
    • ≥ 0.85 → semantic-on-track
    • 0.6–0.85 → semantic-at-risk
    • < 0.6 → semantic-critical
  • Footer: Velocity feeds CPM duration estimates · ADR-0036 link

Where to find it in the app

Section titled “Where to find it in the app”
  • Route: /projects/:projectId/sprints (right column of the metrics row, bottom half)

API endpoints

Section titled “API endpoints”
MethodEndpointPurpose
GET/api/v1/projects/{id}/velocity/Last-8 closed sprint points/tasks + rolling stats + forecast range + team_velocity_per_day

The team_velocity_per_day field is the same rolling per-day average used by velocity calibration suggestions on sprint close.

Why ± stdev, not a point estimate

Section titled “Why ± stdev, not a point estimate”

Stakeholders trust a range more than a single number. A forecast that says “5–8 sprints remaining” defends itself against the team’s natural variance; a point estimate is brittle.

The terminology is forecast range, not “velocity confidence band” — confidence band has a specific statistical meaning we are not claiming here. Velocity is XP-origin (not in the Scrum Guide 2020) but real-world standard practice; we surface it as a practice-layer tool, not a Scrum mandate.

Section titled “Related ADRs”
  • ADR-0036 — Hybrid PM philosophy: how velocity feeds CPM duration estimates
  • ADR-0037 §Q3 — Velocity storage decision (snapshot on close, not computed from history)

If you are…

Section titled “If you are…”
  • Carlos — read the forecast range chip. The footer ADR link explains why this is defensible.
  • Raj — the rolling avg drives the work package re-forecast on the Gantt at Step 6.
  • Maya — own the trajectory. If the bar colour is shifting amber over multiple sprints, the team is signalling something.